fix: sync all skill updates and new skills into plugin bundles

- Synced 97 existing skill SKILL.md files from skills/ to their plugin bundle copies
- Added 7 new skills to plugin bundles:
  - seo-content-brief, media-pitch -> pm-gtm
  - tax-planning-checklist -> pm-finance
  - change-management-plan -> pm-hr
  - sales-forecasting-model -> pm-sales
  - workshop-facilitation-guide -> pm-operations
  - teaching-lesson-plan -> pm-cross

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
mohitagw15856
2026-04-20 21:00:00 +01:00
parent d7f6c2cd05
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---
name: experiment-designer
description: Designs A/B tests from hypotheses and interprets experiment results
with statistical rigour. Use when user says "run an experiment", "design an A/B
test", "test this feature", "interpret these results", "was this experiment
successful", or "what sample size do I need".
metadata:
author: Mohit Aggarwal
version: 1.0.0
category: data-and-metrics
tags: [experimentation, data, analytics, ab-testing]
documentation: https://github.com/mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills
description: "Design statistically rigorous A/B tests and interpret experiment results. Use when asked to design an experiment, run an A/B test, calculate sample size, interpret test results, or assess whether an experiment was successful. Produces a complete experiment design with hypothesis, sample size, run time, success criteria, and risk flags — or a results interpretation with ship/iterate/kill recommendation."
---
# Experiment Designer Skill
## Purpose
Produce rigorous experiment designs from product hypotheses, and interpret
results with statistical and practical significance — so you can defend every
decision to a sceptical engineering lead or data scientist.
Produce rigorous experiment designs from product hypotheses, and interpret results with statistical and practical significance — so you can defend every decision to a sceptical engineering lead or data scientist.
## Required Inputs
Ask the user for these if not provided:
**For experiment design:**
- Hypothesis (what change, what metric, what expected movement)
- Current baseline metric value
- Minimum detectable effect (MDE) — the smallest lift worth caring about
- Available daily sample size
**For results interpretation:**
- Control and variant results (raw numbers or percentages)
- P-value or confidence interval
- Run duration (days)
- Any anomalies observed during the test
## Two-Phase Process
### Phase 1: Experiment Design
**Required inputs:** hypothesis, primary metric, current baseline, minimum
detectable effect (MDE), available sample size per day.
**Output:**
- Hypothesis restated as: "If we [change], we expect [metric] to [move by X%]
because [reason]"
- Control and variant definitions
- Primary metric (one only)
- Secondary guardrail metrics (2-3 max)
- Required sample size (calculated from MDE and baseline)
- Estimated run time in days
- Pre-defined success criteria (before the test runs — no moving goalposts)
- Design risk flags: novelty effects, seasonal confounds, multiple testing issues,
network effects, sample ratio mismatch risks
1. Restate hypothesis as: "If we [change], we expect [metric] to [move by X%] because [reason]"
2. Define control and variant clearly
3. Select primary metric (one only) and secondary guardrail metrics (2-3 max)
4. Calculate required sample size from MDE and baseline
5. Estimate run time in days
6. Set pre-defined success criteria before the test runs — no moving goalposts
7. Flag design risks: novelty effects, seasonal confounds, multiple testing issues, network effects, sample ratio mismatch
### Phase 2: Results Interpretation
**Required inputs:** control results, variant results, p-value or raw numbers,
run duration, any anomalies observed.
1. Assess statistical significance (p < 0.05 threshold)
2. Assess practical significance: was the lift meaningful for the business, not just real?
3. Interpret confidence intervals
4. Investigate confounding factors
5. Recommend: Ship / Iterate / Kill / Run follow-up test
6. **Validate** — Confirm the test ran for the full planned duration. Flag if it was stopped early (peeking problem). Confirm sample ratio mismatch did not occur.
**Output:**
- Statistical significance assessment (p < 0.05 threshold)
- Practical significance: was the lift meaningful for the business, not just real?
- Confidence interval interpretation
- Confounding factors to investigate
- Recommendation: Ship / Iterate / Kill / Run follow-up test
- If "Iterate": specific hypotheses to test next
## Output Structure
**[Design or Results header based on phase]**
*Hypothesis:* "If we [change], we expect [metric] to [move by X%] because [reason]"
*Primary metric:* [One metric only]
*Guardrail metrics:* [2-3 max]
*Required sample size:* [n per variant]
*Estimated run time:* [days]
*Pre-defined success threshold:* [specific number]
*Design risk flags:* [any concerns]
**Results (Phase 2 only):**
*Statistical significance:* [p-value and conclusion]
*Practical significance:* [lift size vs. business threshold]
*Recommendation:* Ship / Iterate / Kill / Follow-up — [rationale]
## Quality Checks
- Never interpret results from an underpowered test without flagging it
- Always distinguish statistical from practical significance
- Flag if test was stopped early (peeking problem)
- Note if sample ratio mismatch occurred
- [ ] Hypothesis specifies the change, the metric, the direction, and the reason
- [ ] Primary metric is singular — guardrail metrics are secondary
- [ ] Success criteria are defined before the test launches (not after seeing results)
- [ ] Test was not stopped early (or flagged clearly if it was)
- [ ] Practical significance assessed separately from statistical significance
- [ ] Sample ratio mismatch is checked in results interpretation