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+---
+description: Run a pre-mortem risk analysis on a PRD, launch plan, or feature — identify what could go wrong before it does
+argument-hint: "<PRD, plan, or feature description>"
+---
+
+# /pre-mortem -- Pre-Launch Risk Analysis
+
+Imagine your launch has failed. Now work backward to figure out why. This command applies the Tigers/Paper Tigers/Elephants framework to surface real risks and create mitigation plans.
+
+## Invocation
+
+```
+/pre-mortem [paste or upload a PRD, launch plan, or feature spec]
+/pre-mortem We're launching a self-serve billing portal next month
+```
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1: Accept the Plan
+
+Accept in any format: PRD, feature spec, launch plan, project brief, or verbal description. The more detail provided, the sharper the risk analysis.
+
+### Step 2: Risk Identification
+
+Apply the **pre-mortem** skill:
+
+Imagine the product has launched and failed. Generate risks across categories:
+- **Technical**: Performance, scalability, integration failures, data issues
+- **User**: Adoption barriers, usability problems, unmet expectations
+- **Business**: Revenue impact, competitive response, market timing
+- **Operational**: Support load, documentation gaps, training needs
+- **Dependencies**: Third-party services, cross-team handoffs, regulatory
+
+### Step 3: Classify Risks
+
+Categorize each risk:
+
+**Tigers** — Real, substantive risks that could cause failure
+- Assess severity: Launch-blocking / Fast-follow / Track
+- For launch-blocking Tigers: immediate mitigation required
+- For fast-follow Tigers: plan to address within first sprint post-launch
+- For track Tigers: monitor but don't delay launch
+
+**Paper Tigers** — Risks that feel scary but are overblown
+- Explain why the concern is manageable
+- Note what would need to change for this to become a real Tiger
+
+**Elephants** — Unspoken risks the team knows about but avoids discussing
+- Surface political, organizational, or uncomfortable risks
+- Frame constructively with suggested conversation starters
+
+### Step 4: Generate Pre-Mortem Report
+
+```
+## Pre-Mortem: [Feature/Launch]
+
+**Date**: [today]
+**Status**: [Draft / Reviewed]
+
+### Risk Summary
+- **Tigers**: [count] ([launch-blocking], [fast-follow], [track])
+- **Paper Tigers**: [count]
+- **Elephants**: [count]
+
+### Launch-Blocking Tigers
+| # | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Owner | Deadline |
+|---|------|-----------|--------|-----------|-------|----------|
+
+### Fast-Follow Tigers
+| # | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Planned Response | Owner |
+|---|------|-----------|--------|-----------------|-------|
+
+### Track Tigers
+[Risks to monitor post-launch with trigger conditions]
+
+### Paper Tigers
+[Concerns that seem big but are manageable — with reasoning]
+
+### Elephants in the Room
+[Uncomfortable truths the team should discuss]
+
+### Go/No-Go Checklist
+- [ ] All launch-blocking Tigers mitigated
+- [ ] Fast-follow plan documented and assigned
+- [ ] Monitoring in place for Track Tigers
+- [ ] Rollback plan defined
+- [ ] Support team briefed
+```
+
+Save as markdown.
+
+### Step 5: Offer Next Steps
+
+- "Want me to **update the PRD** with risk mitigations?"
+- "Should I **create test scenarios** for the riskiest areas?"
+- "Want me to **draft a launch checklist** from these findings?"
+
+## Notes
+
+- The best pre-mortems happen when the plan is 80% done — early enough to change course, late enough to have substance
+- Push past the obvious risks — the most dangerous risks are the ones nobody mentions
+- Elephants are the highest-value output — surfacing what the team avoids discussing
+- For each Tiger, the mitigation should be specific and assignable, not "be careful"
+- If the pre-mortem reveals too many launch-blocking Tigers, recommend delaying or phasing the launch