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+---
+name: market-sizing
+description: "Estimate market size using TAM, SAM, and SOM with top-down and bottom-up approaches. Use when sizing a market opportunity, estimating addressable market, preparing for investor pitches, or evaluating market entry. Triggers: market size, TAM SAM SOM, addressable market, market opportunity, how big is the market, market estimation."
+---
+
+# Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)
+
+## Purpose
+Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.
+
+## Instructions
+
+You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.
+
+### Input
+Your task is to estimate the market size for **$ARGUMENTS** within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).
+
+If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.
+
+### Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)
+
+1. **Market Definition**: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply
+2. **Top-Down Estimation**: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice
+3. **Bottom-Up Estimation**: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate
+4. **SAM Scoping**: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints
+5. **SOM Estimation**: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity
+6. **Growth Projection**: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years
+7. **Assumption Mapping**: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate
+
+### Output Structure
+
+**Market Definition**
+- Problem space and customer need
+- Geographic and segment boundaries
+- Key constraints or scoping decisions
+
+**TAM (Total Addressable Market)**
+- Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning
+- Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation
+- Reconciliation of the two approaches
+- Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)
+
+**SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)**
+- Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve
+- Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier
+- SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning
+
+**SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)**
+- Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years
+- Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction
+- SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning
+
+**Market Summary Table**
+
+| Metric | Current Estimate | 2-3 Year Projection |
+|--------|-----------------|---------------------|
+| TAM    |                 |                     |
+| SAM    |                 |                     |
+| SOM    |                 |                     |
+
+**Growth Drivers & Trends**
+- Key factors that could expand or contract the market
+- Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts
+- Emerging segments or adjacent markets
+
+**Key Assumptions & Risks**
+- Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered)
+- Confidence level for each (high / medium / low)
+- How to validate the most uncertain assumptions
+- What would materially change the estimates
+
+## Best Practices
+
+- Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate
+- Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks
+- Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers
+- Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data
+- Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing
+- Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets
+- Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals
+- Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates
+
+---
+
+### Further Reading
+
+- [Market Research: Advanced Techniques](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/market-research-advanced-techniques)
+- [User Interviews: The Ultimate Guide to Research Interviews](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/interviewing-customers-the-ultimate)
+- [Crossing the Chasm: The Ultimate Guide For PMs](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/crossing-the-chasm)
+- [Product Innovation Masterclass](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/product-innovation-masterclass) (video course)