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+---
+name: prioritize-assumptions
+description: "Prioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when you have a list of assumptions to triage, need to decide what to test first, or want to apply assumption prioritization canvas. Triggers: prioritize assumptions, assumption matrix, what to test first, risk assessment, assumption canvas."
+---
+
+## Prioritize Assumptions
+
+Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.
+
+### Context
+
+You are helping prioritize assumptions for **$ARGUMENTS**.
+
+If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.
+
+### Domain Context
+
+**ICE** works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). **RICE** splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the `prioritization-frameworks` skill for full formulas and templates.
+
+### Instructions
+
+The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:
+
+1. **For each assumption**, evaluate two dimensions:
+   - **Impact**: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
+   - **Risk**: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort
+
+2. **Categorize each assumption** using the Impact × Risk matrix:
+   - **Low Impact, Low Risk** → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
+   - **High Impact, Low Risk** → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
+   - **Low Impact, High Risk** → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
+   - **High Impact, High Risk** → Design an experiment to test it
+
+3. **For each assumption requiring testing**, suggest an experiment that:
+   - Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
+   - Measures actual behavior, not opinions
+   - Has a clear success metric and threshold
+
+4. **Present results** as a prioritized matrix or table.
+
+Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.
+
+---
+
+### Further Reading
+
+- [Assumption Prioritization Canvas: How to Identify And Test The Right Assumptions](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/assumption-prioritization-canvas)
+- [Continuous Product Discovery Masterclass (CPDM)](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/cpdm) (video course)