ag-bids-mcp/CHANGELOG.md

# Changelog

Notes for clients/agents that consume the ag-bids MCP tools and the underlying
`ag-monitor` `/api/data/*` HTTP API. Newest first.

## 2026-05-30 — Regional fertilizer input costs (real $/ton + change)

Real U.S. **regional retail fertilizer prices** now feed the input-cost tools,
so the advisor can reason about fertilizer the same way it does diesel and grain
— actual dollars and the move, not an index. Source: **USDA AgTransport**
(monthly, `$/ton`, history back to 2023).

### Changed MCP tools (fertilizer added to the existing input-cost tools)

- **`input_cost_trend(item, geo?, years=10)`** — `item` now accepts six
  fertilizers in addition to `diesel`: **`urea`, `uan`, `anhydrous`** (anhydrous
  ammonia), **`dap`, `map`, `potash`**. Returns the latest real `$/ton`,
  month-over-month and year-over-year change ($ and %), and seasonal context.
  - New optional **`geo`** = AgTransport region; **defaults to `Cornbelt`**.
    Other regions: `U.S. Gulf NOLA`, `Northern Plains`, `Southern Plains`,
    `Southeast`, `Northeast`, `California`, `Pacific Northwest`, `South Central`,
    `Central Florida`, `Tampa` (not every product is published for every region).
  - `diesel` is unchanged — national U.S. `$/gal`, weekly; `geo` is ignored for it.
- **`input_cost_series(item, geo?)`** — raw monthly `$/ton` series for any
  fertilizer (or the diesel `$/gal` weekly series), region-selectable.

Seasonal percentile for fertilizer is computed over a short history (2023+), so
it deepens over time; the price and YoY/MoM change are solid now.

### API

- `GET /api/data/input-cost-trend?item=&geo=&years=` — `geo` added.
- `GET /api/data/input-cost-series?item=&geo=` — `geo` added.
- `GET /api/data/input-cost-geographies?item=` — **new**: lists the regions a
  given input has data for (plus its `default_geo`).

### Example questions → tool calls

| Ask | Call |
|---|---|
| Cornbelt urea price and how it's moved | `input_cost_trend(item="urea")` |
| Anhydrous ammonia in the Southern Plains | `input_cost_trend(item="anhydrous", geo="Southern Plains")` |
| Potash $/ton history | `input_cost_series(item="potash")` |
| Which regions have DAP prices | (API) `GET /api/data/input-cost-geographies?item=dap` |

## 2026-05-30 — Grain price-received trends (real $ + change + seasonal)

New national/seasonal reference layer (USDA NASS, corn back to 1908) — the
macro benchmark to compare local cash bids against. Real prices and the change,
not an index.

### New MCP tools

- **`price_trend(commodity, geo="US", years=10)`** — monthly price *received by
  farmers* ($/bu) with the move: latest real price, **month-over-month and
  year-over-year change ($ and %)**, and seasonal context (percentile vs the
  same month over the last N years, normal, and range). `geo` is `US` or any
  2-letter state. Conclusions, not rows.
- **`price_series(commodity, geo="US", start_year?, end_year?)`** — raw monthly
  series ($/bu) for charting/drill-down (defaults to the recent window).

### API

- `GET /api/data/price-trend?commodity=&geo=&years=` — computed trend (cents +
  `change_cents`/`change_pct`/`yoy_*` + `seasonal`).
- `GET /api/data/price-series?commodity=&geo=&start_year=&end_year=` — raw series.
- `GET /api/data/price-geographies?commodity=` — which geos (US + states) exist.

All grain: corn/soy/wheat, all 50 states + US.

### Input-cost tools (real $ + change)

- **`input_cost_trend(item, years=10)`** — real input price with the move.
  Currently `item="diesel"` (EIA U.S. retail $/gal, weekly, back to 1994):
  latest price + week-over-week and year-over-year change + seasonal
  percentile/range. (For current fertilizer $/ton, `current_input_price` (DTN)
  still applies; more inputs extend this same tool.)
- **`input_cost_series(item)`** — raw historical series for an input.
- API: `GET /api/data/input-cost-trend?item=&years=`,
  `GET /api/data/input-cost-series?item=`.

USDA stopped publishing dollar input prices in 2014, so these use real-dollar
sources (EIA) rather than an index.

## 2026-05-30 — Source geo + many more locations

### Per-source geo (API + MCP)

- **`GET /api/data/sources`** now returns location geo on every source:
  `city, state, zip, county, latitude, longitude` (any may be `null`). The
  AgriCharts-fed elevators carry exact coordinates; smaller sites carry
  city/state/zip.
- **MCP `list_sources`** gained a **Location** column (`City, ST ZIP`).
  `source_health` is unchanged in shape.
- Sources that are national or non-physical (CBOT futures, USDA AMS, DTN
  fertilizer, hedge-to-arrive / "Direct" bid buckets) legitimately have `null`
  geo. ~43 of ~51 sources are geo-tagged.

### Many more elevator locations

These flow through every data tool/endpoint automatically (`latest`, `history`,
`best`, `basis_movement`/`basis_detail`, `sources`, `deliveries`). No tool
signatures changed — just far more sources, all named `"<Co-op> — <Location>"`:

- **Heritage Cooperative** — new co-op, **23 central/eastern-Ohio locations**
  (corn/soy/wheat).
- **Mercer Landmark** — expanded from 2 to **all ~16 locations**. Note: the two
  old source names were renamed for continuity — `"Mercer Landmark — St Henry"`
  → `"Mercer Landmark — MPS St Henry"`, `"Mercer Landmark — Minster"` →
  `"Mercer Landmark — Heartland Minster"`.
- **Bambauer** — now both locations incl. **Pemberton**
  (`"Bambauer — Jackson Center / New Knoxville"`, `"Bambauer — Pemberton"`);
  the old `"Bambauer Jackson Center / New Knoxville, OH"` source was renamed to
  the first of those.

If you cache source names, refresh them — several changed and many were added.

## 2026-05-29 — Futures price + change tool

### New MCP tool

- **`futures_quote(commodity, delivery?)`** — CBOT futures price and change for a
  grain. Reports the latest price, today's **session open**, the prior day's
  close, and **both** moves: **change since open** and **change on the day**
  (vs the previous settle). With `delivery` (e.g. `"Jul 2026"`) it resolves the
  listed contract that month prices against (e.g. `ZCN26`); without it, the
  continuous nearby.

### API changes (`ag-monitor`)

- **`GET /api/data/futures?commodity=<grain>&delivery=<label?>`** — new endpoint.
  Returns `{ commodity, delivery, contract, symbol, quote }` where `quote` is
  `{ settle_date, open_cents, last_cents, prev_close_cents,
  change_since_open_cents, change_on_day_cents, fetched_at }` (or `null` if no
  data yet for that contract). `commodity` must be `corn`/`soy`/`wheat`.
- **`futures_quotes` table** gained an `open_cents` column; the futures scraper
  now stores the session **Open** alongside the close. Rows captured before this
  change have `open_cents = NULL`, so `change_since_open_cents` is `null` for
  those until the next session is scraped.
- Futures now also pull at **:30 during the CBOT day session** (on top of the
  hourly :00), so `last` and the changes track the session every ~30 min.

### Example questions → tool calls

| Ask | Call |
|---|---|
| Corn Jul futures and how far it's moved today | `futures_quote(commodity="corn", delivery="Jul 2026")` |
| Soy nearby futures, change on the day | `futures_quote(commodity="soy")` |

## 2026-05-29 — Flexible history + basis movement

### New MCP tools

- **`basis_movement(commodity?, source?, delivery?, days=30)`** — aggregated
  basis trend, **one headline line per crop**. Averages every matching
  (elevator × delivery) series to `avg basis first → last` over the window and
  reports how far it moved. This is the cheap "how is basis moving overall"
  view. All filters optional; `commodity` (if given) must be `corn`/`soy`/`wheat`.
  - Positive move = **cash strengthened** vs futures (basis up); negative = weaker.
  - Aggregation is intentional: divergent elevators can net to "flat". When the
    aggregate looks flat or surprising, call `basis_detail` to see per-elevator
    splits.

- **`basis_detail(commodity?, source?, delivery?, days=30)`** — the drill-down
  for `basis_movement`. **One row per (elevator, crop, delivery)** series with
  basis `first → last` and the move. Same optional filters.

Both tools do the aggregation **server-side (in the MCP)** and return compact
markdown — they do not dump every raw sample — to keep token usage low. Pattern:
call `basis_movement` first, then `basis_detail` (optionally filtered) only when
you need the breakdown.

### Changed MCP tools

- **`price_history`** — `commodity` is now **optional** (was required). Omit it
  to span every crop. Output now groups by **(elevator, crop, delivery)**,
  surfaces **basis first → last** in each series summary, and adds a **Futures**
  column to the raw points table. Every filter (`commodity`, `source`,
  `delivery`, `days`) is optional and AND'd — pivot per elevator, per crop, per
  delivery, or any combination.
  - Raw per-row points are still only included when the window has ≤ ~60 samples;
    wider queries return the per-series summaries only.

- **`latest_prices`** — added the **`kind`** filter (`grain` | `fertilizer`) for
  parity with the API. `commodity`, `source`, `delivery`, `kind` all optional.

### API changes (`ag-monitor`)

- **`GET /api/data/history`** — `commodity` query param is now **optional**.
  When omitted, returns history across all crops. `source_id`, `delivery`, and
  `days` (1–730, default 30) remain optional. Response shape is unchanged:
  `{ "commodity": <str|null>, "days": <int>, "rows": [...] }`. Each row carries
  `fetched_at, source_id, source_name, commodity, delivery, bid_cents,
  basis_cents, futures_cents` so callers can pivot client-side.
  - `GET /api/data/latest` already supported optional `commodity`, `source`,
    `delivery`, `kind` — unchanged.

### Conventions / gotchas

- All money fields are **integer cents**. `bid_cents`/`futures_cents` render as
  `$/bu` (4 dp) for grain and `$/ton` (2 dp) for fertilizer; `basis_cents`
  renders as a signed dollar value (2 dp), e.g. `-0.14`.
- Basis is only meaningful for grain — the basis tools skip non-grain rows and
  any series with no basis on file.
- `source` filtering is by **exact** elevator display name (e.g.
  `"Mercer Landmark — Minster"`). Use `list_sources` to get exact names.

### Example questions → tool calls

| Ask | Call |
|---|---|
| Basis movement overall, last 7 days | `basis_movement(days=7)` |
| Corn basis movement across all elevators | `basis_movement(commodity="corn")` |
| Basis movement at one elevator | `basis_movement(source="Mercer Landmark — Minster")` |
| Per-elevator basis breakdown for corn | `basis_detail(commodity="corn")` |
| Last 7 days of history from elevator X for corn | `price_history(commodity="corn", source="…", days=7)` |
| All-crop price history at one elevator | `price_history(source="…")` |
| Latest grain bids only | `latest_prices(kind="grain")` |