mohitagw15856
f3b9d008fe
New skills added: - teaching-lesson-plan: structured lesson plans for any subject/audience/setting - seo-content-brief: complete SEO briefs with intent, competitor gaps, and outline - media-pitch: story-first journalist pitches with angle development framework - change-management-plan: stakeholder analysis, comms strategy, adoption metrics - workshop-facilitation-guide: activity instructions, decision protocols, facilitator moves - sales-forecasting-model: pipeline model, scenario analysis, assumption log - tax-planning-checklist: year-end tax planning across income, pension, CGT, reliefs Quality improvements across all 93 existing skills: - Standardised description format: "Verb the thing. Use when X. Produces Y." - Added Required Inputs section to all skills missing it (prompts for missing info) - Added Quality Checks section to all skills missing it (specific, not generic) - Fixed broken multiline YAML descriptions - Removed non-standard frontmatter keys (tool_integration, metadata blocks) README updated to v6.0.0 with 100-skill count, new skill tables, and article series Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
131 lines
4.6 KiB
Markdown
131 lines
4.6 KiB
Markdown
---
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name: sales-forecasting-model
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description: "Build a structured sales forecast framework for any business or team. Use when asked to build a sales forecast, create a revenue model, project pipeline, or build a bottom-up forecast. Produces a forecast methodology, pipeline model, scenario analysis, and assumption log."
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---
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# Sales Forecasting Model Skill
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Produces a structured sales forecast framework — from pipeline conversion modelling to scenario analysis. Built for revenue and sales leaders who need a defensible forecast, not a spreadsheet guess.
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## Required Inputs
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Ask the user for these if not provided:
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- **Business type** (SaaS / Transactional / Services / Marketplace)
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- **Forecast period** (monthly / quarterly / annual)
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- **Sales motion** (inbound / outbound / channel / PLG / mixed)
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- **Current pipeline data** (number of deals, stages, values — rough is fine)
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- **Historical conversion rates** (if available — otherwise model will flag as assumption)
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- **Average deal size and sales cycle length**
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## Output Structure
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---
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# Sales Forecast: [Team / Business] — [Period]
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**Forecast type:** [Bottom-up pipeline / Top-down quota / Capacity-based / Hybrid]
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**Period:** [Month / Quarter / Year]
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**Created:** [Date]
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**Forecast owner:** [Name]
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---
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## 1. Forecast Methodology
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**Chosen approach:** [Bottom-up / Top-down / Hybrid] — and why for this context.
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Bottom-up (recommended when pipeline data exists):
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> Start from real deals in the pipeline. Apply stage-by-stage conversion rates. Sum to a revenue number.
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Top-down (useful for planning, not for calling a number):
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> Start from market or quota. Work backwards to activity targets.
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---
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## 2. Pipeline Stage Model
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Define the sales stages and the expected conversion rate between each:
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| Stage | Description | % of deals that advance | Avg time in stage |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Prospect | Identified, not contacted | — | — |
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| Qualified | Discovery done, confirmed fit | [X%] | [N days] |
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| Proposal | Proposal sent | [X%] | [N days] |
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| Negotiation | Commercial terms being agreed | [X%] | [N days] |
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| Closed Won | Contract signed | [X%] | — |
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**Overall pipeline conversion rate:** [X%] (Qualified → Closed Won)
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**Average sales cycle:** [N days from Qualified to Close]
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---
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## 3. Current Pipeline Snapshot
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| Stage | Number of deals | Total value | Expected close (weighted) |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Qualified | [N] | £[X] | £[X × conversion %] |
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| Proposal | [N] | £[X] | £[X × conversion %] |
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| Negotiation | [N] | £[X] | £[X × conversion %] |
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| **Total** | | **£[X]** | **£[weighted total]** |
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**Coverage ratio:** [Weighted pipeline ÷ target = X×]
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*Rule of thumb: 3× pipeline coverage is needed for confident forecast; 2× is tight; below 1.5× is at risk.*
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---
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## 4. Scenario Analysis
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| Scenario | Assumption | Revenue | Probability |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Upside | All Negotiation + top 50% of Proposal close | £[X] | [%] |
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| Base | Weighted pipeline conversion at historical rates | £[X] | [%] |
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| Downside | Conversion rates drop 20% from historical | £[X] | [%] |
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**Committed forecast:** £[X] — [The number the forecast owner is willing to call. Between base and downside.]
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---
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## 5. Key Assumptions Log
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Every forecast is a set of assumptions. Name them explicitly so they can be updated:
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| Assumption | Value | Confidence | Source | Last updated |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Avg deal size | £[X] | High/Med/Low | [Last N deals] | [Date] |
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| Sales cycle | [N days] | | | |
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| Close rate from Proposal | [X%] | | | |
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| Seasonal factor | [e.g. Q4 +20%] | | | |
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| Churn/contraction | [X% of ARR at risk] | | | |
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---
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## 6. Activity-Based Sanity Check
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Work backwards from the forecast to check if the required activity is achievable:
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To hit £[target]:
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- Deals needed to close: [N] (target ÷ avg deal size)
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- Qualified pipeline needed (at current conversion): [N deals or £value]
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- Discovery calls needed per week to build that pipeline: [N]
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- Outreach needed per week (at [X%] meeting rate): [N]
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**Does the team have capacity to generate this?** [Yes / No — flag if not]
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---
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## Quality Checks
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- [ ] Forecast methodology is stated (not just a number)
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- [ ] Stage conversion rates are based on historical data or flagged as assumptions
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- [ ] Coverage ratio is calculated
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- [ ] Three scenarios are modelled (not just one number)
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- [ ] Assumption log is explicit and dated
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- [ ] Activity sanity check confirms the forecast is achievable with current capacity
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## Example Trigger Phrases
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- "Build a sales forecast for [period]"
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- "Create a pipeline model for [team/business]"
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- "Help me build a bottom-up revenue forecast"
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- "What is our forecast for Q[N] based on current pipeline?"
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