Pawel Huryn
49 lines
2.3 KiB
Markdown
49 lines
2.3 KiB
Markdown
---
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name: prioritize-assumptions
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description: "Prioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas."
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---
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## Prioritize Assumptions
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Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.
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### Context
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You are helping prioritize assumptions for **$ARGUMENTS**.
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If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.
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### Domain Context
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**ICE** works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). **RICE** splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the `prioritization-frameworks` skill for full formulas and templates.
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### Instructions
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The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:
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1. **For each assumption**, evaluate two dimensions:
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- **Impact**: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
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- **Risk**: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort
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2. **Categorize each assumption** using the Impact × Risk matrix:
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- **Low Impact, Low Risk** → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
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- **High Impact, Low Risk** → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
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- **Low Impact, High Risk** → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
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- **High Impact, High Risk** → Design an experiment to test it
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3. **For each assumption requiring testing**, suggest an experiment that:
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- Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
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- Measures actual behavior, not opinions
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- Has a clear success metric and threshold
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4. **Present results** as a prioritized matrix or table.
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Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.
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---
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### Further Reading
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- [Assumption Prioritization Canvas: How to Identify And Test The Right Assumptions](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/assumption-prioritization-canvas)
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- [Continuous Product Discovery Masterclass (CPDM)](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/cpdm) (video course)
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